*EPF506 02/11/2005
Global Networks Contribute to Indian Ocean Warning System
(Tsunami disaster reshaping decisions about seismic data sharing) (1320)

By Cheryl Pellerin
Washington File Staff Writer

(This is part four of a four-part series on the elements of a tsunami early warning system.)

Washington – Even before all the devastating losses were calculated after the December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean, consensus was building for the creation of an early warning system in the region to avert such a catastrophic loss of life.

In the $950 million budget request that the Bush administration will present to the Congress later in February, $35 million has been earmarked for development of early warning systems.  Of that amount, $23 million would be devoted to improve the existing warning systems in the Pacific Ocean and elsewhere; $12 million would be dedicated to enhancing early warning and disaster mitigation in the affected countries.

Agreement on development of warning systems also is being reached in diplomatic circles, with recognition of the need for cooperative use of internationally generated scientific data that will create the foundation for expanded warning systems in currently unprotected regions.

At a ministerial meeting in Phuket, Thailand, January 28-29, the Declaration on Regional Cooperation on Tsunami Early Warning Arrangements was adopted, which calls for regional cooperation and integration with similar efforts of other bodies.

These bodies include the International Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and the 59-nation, U.S.-led Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) that will help mitigate the impact of tsunamis and other disasters.

A critical element of GEOSS and any early warning system for tsunamis and other disasters involves seismology -- the study of earthquakes and seismic waves that move through and around the earth.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

Many countries around the world have seismographic networks that monitor and record seismic waves. Many networks share their data openly with other networks and countries. Other networks, including military networks, do not share data, often for political and security reasons.

In the United States, the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) -- funded jointly by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.S. Geological Survey – has 137 stations distributed uniformly over the planet.

The network, according to GSN program manager Rhett Butler, records nearly all the Earth’s signals and is used for tsunami warning, research and many other purposes. GSN data are openly available to any user (access http://www.iris.edu/ and follow the “data” links to real-time data feeds).

“We hope that we can serve as an example to other networks around the world to continue to make data openly available because, ultimately,” Butler said, “to do the job globally, you all have to work together.”

The GSN cooperates with many international seismic networks, including networks operated by France, Japan and Australia.

“We cooperate through the International Federation of Digital Seismic Networks,” he said. “We all share our data and maintain standards. There are also various military networks around the world. The United States operates its own monitoring network for nuclear detection, as do the French and other groups.”

The International Monitoring System (IMS), a network of 321 stations that is being built to monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), uses 50 of the GSN seismic stations, Butler said.

According to Gilbert Sateia, deputy director of the State Department’s Office of Nuclear Affairs, “The U.S. Senate did not give its advice and consent to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, but the United States does support the International Monitoring System associated with that treaty.”

The United States is a signatory to the CTBT but has not ratified the treaty. The CTBT Organization Preparatory Commission, based in Vienna, Austria, is responsible for establishing the global verification regime that includes the IMS and the International Data Center (IDC), whichprovides products and services needed for global monitoring.

The United States provided technical experts throughout the development of all IMS technologies, including communications and automatic data processing. The United States also makes a financial contribution to the IMS -- $18 million over the last several years -- and U.S. representatives participate in meetings that deal with IMS installation and operation, Sateia said.

The United States also contributes to the Global Communications Infrastructure -- communication links that transmit data from IMS stations to the IDC in Vienna and from there to signatory states like the United States.

The IMS is more than a seismic network. Because the system must monitor the sea, land and air for evidence of nuclear releases, the system has four kinds of stations.

Seismic, hydroacoustic (underwater sound) and infrasound (frequency is too low to be detected by the human ear) stations monitor underground, underwater and atmospheric environments. Radionuclide (radioactive atoms) stations detect radioactive debris from atmospheric, underground or underwater nuclear explosions.

The IMS seismic monitoring system comprises 50 primary stations that send data in real time to the IDC, and 120 auxiliary stations make data available on request from the IDC.

Five of the 50 primary stations are U.S. stations, as are 13 auxiliary stations. IMS seismic data is used mainly to locate seismic events and distinguish between earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions.

More than 200 of 321 stations are installed, and 138 are sending data to the IDC.

Although the IMS is not designed as an early warning system, it did record the northern Sumatra earthquake on 78 of its monitoring stations within seconds to minutes of the event. The IDC automatically notified signatory states about two hours after the event.

CTBT Organization Public Information Chief Daniela Rozgonova said any signatory state that received the information could have identified the earthquake as a potentially damaging event if they “had the means to interpret it.”

The IDC, she added “had no means to issue a warning based upon this earthquake, first because its processing systems are not configured to highlight potentially damaging earthquakes, or tsunamis, and secondly because earthquakes are not located with the necessary speed.”

But the CTBT Organization Preparatory Commission could contribute to global early warning efforts by making raw data and/or preprocessed data available to disaster-alert organizations, she said.

Experts' discussions on civil, scientific and other alternate applications of CTBT verification technologies were held in May 2002, September 2003 and May 2004, Rozgonova said.

“The first of these meetings identified tsunami warnings as one potential use of the CTBTO verification technologies. The technological possibilities identified at these expert seminars so far have not been translated into political decisions,” she added.

Another meeting – of Working Group B, the verification side of the Preparatory Commission -- will be held February 21, the State Department’s Sateia said. “They intend to discuss the use of IMS data in tsunami warning," he said.

This working group will discuss the issue of forwarding data from the IMS to international organizations, such as the UNESCO International Oceanographic Commission, that are responsible for hazard mitigation, he added.

Many countries on whose territory the IMS stations are located already forward such data to domestic organizations to provide advance warning of natural hazards, he said.

The Preparatory Commission will decide on adopting any working group recommendations during a special session March 4.

“We are currently assessing the necessary additions and changes to the current mode of operation, the computing and communication infrastructure that would allow the CTBTO PrepCom to help in the international efforts to avoid humanitarian disasters as the one following the tsunami-triggering earthquake of 26 December," Rozgonova said.

She added that such changes and additions could be implemented at a reasonable cost and in a relatively short time frame if signatory states agree to such changes in March.

For additional information, see Part 1 (http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2005&m=February&x=20050208132852lcnirellep0.6402857&t=livefeeds/wf-latest.html), Part 2 (http://usinfo.state.gov/usinfo/Archive/2005/Feb/09-101048.html), and Part 3 (http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2005&m=February&x=20050210145422lcnirellep0.8804638&t=livefeeds/wf-latest.html) of this series.

Information about the Global Seismographic Network is available at http://www.iris.edu/about/GSN/

Information about the International Monitoring System is available at http://www.ctbto.org/ (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/bsv/ctbto/ims.html)

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

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